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# Estimating actual COVID 19 casesin an area based on deaths

Estimating actual COVID 19 casesin an area based on deaths

The goal of this video is to help us all estimate the actual new COVID-19 cases per day in your area. And it’s based on analysis by Thomas Pueyo, he wrote an incredible blog post on Medium.
This is the link and I’ll also include it in the description below.
This is the data that he uses to do some of his analysis.
Now, some of you might be thinking, I know the number of COVID cases in my area, they’re reporting it on the news every day. But that’s the reported number of cases and that’s based on the people that happened to get the test. There are a lot of people who might not have symptoms yet or their symptoms are not severe enough to get the test yet. So the actual cases are likely far larger than the number of confirmed cases. And we can see that in graphical form. Once again, this is a diagram put together by Thomas Pueyo.
It’s a screenshot from his blog post which once again could be found here.
This is all his analysis, or based off of his analysis, but this shows you what was happening in Hubei Province, which is the province where Wuhan is.
And there’s several interesting things here. The vertical axis is the number of cases and what we see on the horizontal axis is per day.
And so for example, we could pick January 23. The yellow bar tells us the number of confirmed new cases that day.
So these are people who would have been tested and then they tested positive, and it looks like that number is about 300.
But then we have this gray bar. This gray bar is the actual number of new cases that day, which is close to 2,500. So roughly eight times as high. Now you might be saying, how did they know the actual number of cases if they didn’t test everyone?
Well, the way they did that is when someone tested positive, they asked them, when did you first get the symptoms? And if they said, Hey, I first got the symptoms 10 days ago, they would be included as a true new case.
An actual new case 10 days before that on January 13, so that Chinese officials were able to actually make these gray bars in hindsight, based on when people said they first got the symptoms.
And there’s a lot of really interesting information here.